A panel of senior academics and former policymakers assembled by Fed Chair Warsh is reviewing the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet with a mandate to identify pathways for reduction. Wall Street strategists warn the exercise faces a structural contradiction: meaningful shrinkage of MBS and longer-dated Treasury holdings risks draining reserves below the ample-reserves threshold, destabilizing short-term funding markets as seen in September 2019. The panel has no fixed timeline but is expected to brief Warsh ahead of the September FOMC.
Armada's traditional desk runs repo against Treasuries and agencies — precisely the collateral classes most sensitive to Fed selling or runoff pace changes. A faster QT trajectory would reduce dealer balance sheet capacity, widen bid-ask spreads, and potentially lift GC repo rates. Counterparties including MMFs and asset managers would also reprice collateral eligibility requirements. The desk should begin scenario-mapping now rather than waiting for panel conclusions.