Galaxy Digital's research team, led by Alex Thorn, has lowered its probability estimate for the Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from higher confidence levels earlier in the year. The primary constraints are Senate floor time competition with other legislative priorities and a lack of meaningful progress in bipartisan negotiations on key provisions. The Clarity Act would provide a comprehensive US framework for crypto asset classification and exchange oversight.
For Armada's crypto repo desk, the Clarity Act's passage or failure shapes the regulatory environment for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE as repo collateral, and affects whether counterparties like market makers and family offices face legal certainty in their crypto holdings. Operating without a clear statutory framework increases client legal risk and may slow institutional counterparty onboarding. Armada's compliance documentation and client agreements should not be premised on the Act passing this year.