The Federal Reserve released its Summary of Economic Projections alongside the June 17 FOMC statement, providing updated median forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate path through 2028. The dot plot is the primary market signal for how many cuts, if any, the Committee anticipates in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
For Armada's traditional repo desk, the dot plot directly informs the term structure of repo rates offered to asset manager and hedge fund counterparties. A more hawkish-than-expected projection would support higher SOFR fixings and widen the spread between overnight and term repo, while dovish signals compress margins. Treasury auction demand from primary dealer counterparties is also sensitive to the growth and inflation projections released today.