TD Cowen analysts assess that the political environment surrounding the Clarity Act has deteriorated materially, making passage in the current congressional session unlikely. The combination of partisan friction, bank lobby resistance, and a crowded legislative calendar are cited as primary obstacles, despite earlier bipartisan momentum at the committee level.
For Armada's crypto desk, this assessment is directly relevant to planning. The firm's collateral eligibility policies, particularly for BTC, ETH, and SOL, should not be predicated on regulatory clarity arriving via legislation this year. Legal counsel should be engaged to ensure that internal frameworks are defensible under existing law and do not depend on statutory classification changes that may not materialize.