Prediction markets and legislative analysts are assigning significantly higher probability to the Clarity Act passing in 2026, driven by a reported compromise on stablecoin provisions and active lobbying support from Coinbase. The Clarity Act is the primary federal crypto market structure bill that would establish regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets and define treatment of stablecoins and tokenized instruments.
For both Armada desks, passage of the Clarity Act would create a federal framework governing the legal classification of crypto collateral, stablecoin repo eligibility, and custody provider obligations. The stablecoin provisions in particular could formalize the use of dollar-pegged assets in settlement and margin workflows. Armada should track the specific collateral and broker-dealer provisions as the bill advances and ensure product documentation and counterparty agreements are structured to comply with the most likely legislative outcome.